Proyeksi Produksi Daging Ayam Ras untuk Memenuhi Kebutuhan Protein Penduduk di Indonesia Forecasting the Production of Race Chicken Meat to Meet the Protein Needs of Indonesia Population

Abstract

Aim of this study was to analyze the forecasting of race chicken meat production to meet the protein needs of Indonesia population. The study was conducted by using a descriptive quantitative research method with a secondary data approach using a time series analysis. The study was carried out from April to June 2022. The population used in this study were all time series data of race chicken meat production in Indonesia in the period of 2000-2021 and total number of Indonesia population in 2010 and 2020. Data processing is calculating using a Microsoft Excel, several forecasting methods that used for production analysis were moving average (MA), weight moving average (WMA), single exponential smoothing (SES), and double exponential smoothing (DES). While the projected population was analyzed using the geometric method. The result showed that there is an increase in the projected race chicken meat from the year period of 2000-2024 and it is linier with the increase of population. The best method for forecasting race chicken meat production is exponential smoothing with SES because it has a MAPE of 10-20% and the smallest error value. By viewing the consumption contribution rate, it is shown that projection in the production still not be sufficient to fulfill the consumption of population in kg per capita per year since several study reported the import dependency for race chicken meat.