Spatial Model Of The Deforestation Potential 2020 & 2024 And The Prevention Approach, Kutai Barat District
Kutai Barat have high forest cover and high deforestation rates. The study purpose to make spatial model, potential distribution of deforestation 2020 and 2024, analysis of the drivers of deforestation, compile and map the approach to reducing deforestation. Deforestation modeling done using MaxEnt and Zonation software. Deforestation sample data used from land cover maps 2009, 2013 and 2016. Deforestation rates used to estimate potential deforestation 2020 and 2024. The drivers of deforestation analyze from land cover change matrix. Prevention strategy approach by overlaying potential deforestation modeling results with RTRW maps. The model has good performance with AUC value 0.873. The validation show very good accuracy for the prediction of area to be deforested by 94%, the accuracy of the spatial distribution of the model 31%. Environmental variables have the highest contribution to the model is the distance from previous deforestation 37.4%. The potential of deforestation 2020 is 85,908 ha and 171,778 ha 2024. Oil palm, agriculture, rubber, HTI and mining are the driver of deforestation. Social forestry is expected to prevent potential deforestation 120,861 ha. Others expected programs to contribute to the deforestation reduction are community land intensification 30,316 ha and implementation of the HCV in plantation 20,120 ha.
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