PREDICTION OF PLANTING DATE AND GROWING PERIOD USING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES IN NINO 3.4 FOR INDRAMAYU DISTRICT

Rini Hidayati, Daniel Naek Chrisendo

Abstract


Agriculture is a very important sector in Indramayu’s economy. Approximately 53.52% of Indramayu residents are involved in agriculture. Indramayu is a center of rice production in Indonesia. Most of the farmers use a traditional cropping method called Pranata Mangsa, which is based on periodic natural events, but not consider climate variability well. Climate variability has become a major obstacle to achieving a successful harvest, because it can affect the timing of planting and length of the growing season, which leads to drought and flood vulnerability. The planting date and growing season predicted by using monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in Nino 3.4. The August SSTa can describe the planting date better than the growing season, which are demonstrated best in Lohbener with R2 = 45% with forecast skill reach = 84% and 92% for advanced and delayed planting dates. Knowing the planting date and growing season length produce a more effective cropping calendar, which includes details such as when to prepare the land, plant seeds, and harvest. This cropping calendar is expected to reduce the impacts of climate variability by providing a more efficient cropping pattern and avoiding potential harvest failures.Agriculture is a very important sector in Indramayu's economy. Approximately 53.52% of Indramayu residents are involved in agriculture. Indramayu is a center of rice production in Indonesia. Most of the farmers use a traditional cropping method called Pranata Mangsa, which is based on periodic natural events, but not consider climate variability well. Climate variability has become a major obstacle to achieving a successful harvest, because it can affect the timing of planting and length of the growing season, which leads to drought and flood vulnerability. The planting date and growing season predicted by using monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in Nino 3.4. The August SSTa can describe the planting date better than the growing season, which are demonstrated best in Lohbener with R2 = 45% with forecast skill reach = 84% and 92% for advanced and delayed planting dates. Knowing the planting date and growing season length produce a more effective cropping calendar, which includes details such as when to prepare the land, plant seeds, and harvest. This cropping calendar is expected to reduce the impacts of climate variability by providing a more efficient cropping pattern and avoiding potential harvest failures.

Keywords


Cropping calendar; Growing season; Planting date; SST anomalies

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.24.2.1-8

DOI (DOWNLOAD): https://doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.24.2.1-8

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